Journal: International journal of cancer
The study analyzed thyroid cancer incidence and mortality data from SEER-22 and SEER-17 (2000-2019) to refine estimates of overdiagnosis using population-specific carcinogenesis models.
Results showed a rapid increase followed by stabilization in the age-standardized incidence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and non-PTC, while mortality rates remained stable.
Overdiagnosis was prominent in differentiated thyroid cancers, especially PTC, accounting for 63.5% of male and 79.5% of female PTC cases. It comprised over 70% of early-stage PTC diagnoses.
Non-PTC showed minimal overdiagnosis, with some underdiagnosis observed in men.
The findings highlight the need for risk-stratified thyroid cancer screening and management to reduce overtreatment while preserving detection of clinically significant cancers.