Journal: Nature medicine
This study quantifies the 2022 global cancer burden attributable to 30 modifiable risk factors across 36 cancer types in 185 countries, using GLOBOCAN incidence data and risk factor prevalence from around 2012 to account for latency.
Key findings:
- An estimated 7.1 million of 18.7 million new cancer cases (37.8%) worldwide were attributable to modifiable exposures.
- Women: 2.7 million cases (29.7% of all cancers).
- Men: 4.3 million cases (45.4% of all cancers).
- Regional variation was substantial:
- Preventable fraction in women: ranged from 24.6% to 38.2%.
- Preventable fraction in men: ranged from 28.1% to 57.2%.
Major contributing risk factors:
- Tobacco smoking: 15.1% of all incident cancers.
- Infections: 10.2%.
- Alcohol consumption: 3.2%.
- Other evaluated factors: high BMI, insufficient physical activity, smokeless tobacco and areca nut, suboptimal breastfeeding, air pollution, ultraviolet radiation, nine infectious agents, and 13 occupational exposures.
Cancer types:
- Lung, stomach, and cervical cancers together accounted for nearly half of preventable cancers.
Methodology notes:
- Population-attributable fractions were estimated primarily using Levin- or Miettinen-based formulas, with direct estimates where appropriate.
- Combined PAFs were adjusted for overlapping exposures and stratified by cancer site, sex, country, and region.
Clinical and public health implication:
A large fraction of the global cancer burden is theoretically preventable, with tobacco control, infection-related cancer prevention (e.g., HPV and HBV vaccination, H. pylori control), and alcohol reduction standing out as high-yield targets for policy and intervention.