Journal: Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology
This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated whether late-stage cancer incidence can serve as a surrogate endpoint for cancer-specific mortality in screening trials.
The study included 57 trials with 61 comparisons and found a moderate to strong correlation between reductions in late-stage cancer incidence and mortality overall (correlation 0.69).
Correlations varied by cancer type:
- Bowel cancer: 0.58
- Breast cancer: 0.79
- Lung cancer: 0.91
Most trial results showed consistency between the effect of screening on late-stage incidence and mortality.
The findings support late-stage cancer incidence as a potentially valuable outcome in screening trials but highlight the need for further research on:
- Optimal timing
- Applicability to other cancers
- Circumstances where late-stage incidence may not predict mortality accurately